TPS Approval Rate Current Stats — What Data Actually Shows

What USCIS Actually Publishes About TPS

USCIS doesn't release approval-rate statistics for Temporary Protected Status applications the way it does for most visa categories. No quarterly report breaks down how many TPS initial registrations or re-registrations were approved versus denied. What the agency does publish — designation announcements, beneficiary counts by country, and Federal Register notices extending or terminating TPS for specific nations — tells you something different: whether TPS remains available for your country, how many people currently hold it, and what the registration windows are.

The absence of traditional approval-rate data isn't an oversight. TPS operates on a country-designation model, not individual petition adjudication. If your country is designated and you meet the eligibility criteria — continuous physical presence, continuous residence since the designation date, no disqualifying criminal convictions, timely filing — approval is the expected outcome. Denials happen when an applicant fails one of those tests, not because USCIS applies a subjective standard or caps the number of grants.

How TPS Designation Works

The Secretary of Homeland Security designates a country for TPS when conditions there — armed conflict, environmental disaster, epidemic, or other extraordinary temporary conditions — make it unsafe for nationals to return. The designation specifies an effective date and an initial period, typically 6 to 18 months, renewable if conditions persist. Only nationals of the designated country (or people without nationality who last habitually resided there) can apply during the registration period.

Once designated, TPS isn't a discretionary benefit in the way an employment-based visa is. If you're from the designated country, you were physically present in the United States on the specified date, you've maintained continuous residence since then, and you file Form I-821 during the registration window with the required fee and supporting documents, the standard is whether you meet the statutory criteria — not whether your application ranks against others.

This structure is why looking for a percentage approval rate misses the mechanism. The bottleneck is the designation itself, controlled by the Secretary. Once designation exists, individual adjudication follows eligibility rules, not a quota or competitive ranking.

What the Beneficiary Counts Tell You

USCIS does publish total TPS beneficiary counts by country, updated periodically on its statistics page. As of early 2026, the countries with the largest TPS populations include El Salvador, Honduras, Venezuela, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Ukraine. These totals reflect everyone currently holding valid TPS under an active designation — initial registrants, re-registrants, and those who gained status through a subsequent designation for the same country.

The count itself doesn't break out approvals versus denials, but it does tell you the scale of the program for your country. A designation covering tens of thousands of beneficiaries signals an established population with multiple re-registration cycles; a newer designation with a smaller count may reflect a recent crisis. Either way, if the count is published, the designation is active, and applications filed during the window are being adjudicated under the current regulatory framework.

What changes these totals over time is not fluctuating approval rates — it's designation renewals, terminations, and new country additions. Venezuela's designation in 2021 brought tens of thousands of new beneficiaries into the system; El Salvador's long-running designation (first issued in 2001) has been extended repeatedly, allowing continuous re-registration.

The Denial Patterns That Do Exist

Denials in TPS cases cluster around specific failures, not broad discretionary judgments. The most common:

Late filing. Miss the initial registration period or a re-registration window without qualifying for late initial filing, and the application is time-barred. USCIS doesn't grant TPS outside the announced periods except under narrow exceptions (you were in valid immigration status and meet other criteria allowing delayed filing).

Failure to establish continuous residence or continuous physical presence. TPS requires that you've been continuously residing in the U.S. since the date specified in the designation and that you were physically present on the effective date. Extended absences or gaps in documentation that leave these elements unproven lead to denial. A single trip abroad doesn't automatically break continuity if you received advance parole, but leaving without it or staying abroad too long will.

Criminal bars. Two or more misdemeanor convictions, or one felony conviction, make you ineligible. Certain other crimes — particularly those involving moral turpitude or national security grounds — also disqualify. The statutory bars are defined, not discretionary, so if you meet one, the application fails regardless of how strong the rest of your case looks.

Failure to re-register during the window. TPS isn't permanent. Each designation comes with expiration dates, and USCIS publishes re-registration notices in the Federal Register and on its website specifying when current beneficiaries must re-file. Miss the window, and your status lapses. You may still be able to file late with an explanation, but it's not guaranteed — and the longer the delay, the harder the case becomes.

These are not gray-area denials. They're statutory ineligibilities, documented in the adjudication record. That's why TPS cases often succeed when the applicant files on time, provides the required identity and nationality evidence, and has a clean criminal record — because the standard is meeting criteria, not winning a discretionary judgment.

Here's the Honest Answer: TPS Approvals Are Predictable Within Eligibility

Let's be direct: if you're asking for an approval rate because you want to know your odds, the percentage won't help you — your documentation and timing will. TPS cases succeed when the applicant qualifies under the rules and files correctly during the window. They fail when a criterion is missed or the application is incomplete.

This is different from visa categories where USCIS applies substantial discretion or balances factors. In those cases, knowing that 70% of applications succeed might tell you something about how officers weigh evidence. In TPS, the question is simpler: does your situation fit the eligibility box? If yes, and you file properly, approval is the standard outcome. If no — you have a disqualifying conviction, you filed months after the deadline without qualifying for an exception, you can't prove you were in the country on the required date — the denial follows the rule, not a statistical trend.

What this means practically: the energy you'd spend analyzing approval percentages is better spent on gathering the right evidence, meeting the deadlines, and understanding which bars apply to your situation.

Current TPS Designations and Extensions (2026)

As of early 2026, active TPS designations cover the following countries, each with its own registration and re-registration timelines:

*Extension dates are subject to renewal by the Secretary of Homeland Security. Confirm the current status and re-registration window on the USCIS TPS page before acting on any date in this table.

The pattern you see here — countries with designations spanning years or decades — reflects the statutory design. TPS was created for temporary conditions, but "temporary" has stretched when return remains unsafe. Extensions require new Federal Register notices; terminations do the same, with a wind-down period allowing status holders to prepare.

These beneficiary counts come from USCIS public data and DHS reports. They're not approval rates — they're snapshots of how many people currently hold valid TPS. The variance between countries reflects the size of each national population in the U.S., the duration of the designation, and how many cycles of re-registration have occurred.

What If My TPS Application Was Denied?

If you receive a denial, the notice will state the reason — usually one of the bars listed above. You have the right to file a motion to reopen or reconsider if you believe USCIS made an error, or if new evidence undermines the basis for denial. The deadline to file is typically 30 days from the decision.

A denial doesn't mean TPS approval rates are low — it means something in your case didn't meet the criteria. The most common fix: if the denial was based on missing evidence (you didn't submit enough proof of nationality, or your continuous residence documentation had gaps), a motion to reopen with the missing documents can succeed. If the denial was based on a legal bar — a conviction USCIS deemed disqualifying, or a late filing without an exception — the motion is harder, and you may need to address the underlying issue (such as seeking post-conviction relief to vacate a conviction) before re-applying.

TPS denials are also not deportation orders by themselves. A denied I-821 puts you back in whatever status you held before (or no status, if you had none). If you're out of status, the denial can lead to removal proceedings, but it's not automatic. That's why applicants who know they're borderline on an eligibility criterion — such as a conviction that might or might not be disqualifying — consult an attorney before filing, not after the denial.

What If the Designation for My Country Terminates?

Termination of a TPS designation isn't a denial of your application — it's the end of the program for that country. When the Secretary determines conditions have improved enough that nationals can return safely, DHS publishes a termination notice in the Federal Register. The notice specifies an end date, usually 6 to 12 months out, giving current beneficiaries time to prepare.

During the wind-down period, you retain work authorization and protection from removal, but you cannot re-register. The expectation is that you'll either adjust to another status (if eligible) or prepare to leave the U.S. by the termination date. Failure to depart or adjust can lead to removal proceedings.

Terminations have been announced and then delayed or reversed when conditions in the country deteriorate again, so a termination notice isn't always final. Sudan's TPS, for instance, has been extended multiple times after termination was considered. But relying on a reversal is not a plan — if termination is announced, treat it as real and explore your options.

What If I Missed the Re-Registration Window?

Re-registration windows are published in the Federal Register and on the USCIS TPS webpage for each designated country. Missing the window doesn't automatically end your status on the deadline — your existing Employment Authorization Document remains valid until its expiration date — but it does mean you won't receive a new EAD or an extension of status when the current designation period ends.

USCIS allows late re-registration if you can show you missed the deadline for reasons beyond your control — hospitalization, a natural disaster affecting your area, or another extraordinary circumstance. The explanation must be credible and documented. "I didn't know about the deadline" is not sufficient if the Federal Register notice was published months in advance and USCIS sent alerts to the last address on file.

If you realize you missed the window, file the I-821 and I-765 as soon as possible with a cover letter explaining the delay. The later you file, the harder the case. A filing one month late with a documented medical emergency is more defensible than a filing six months late with no explanation.

Where to Verify Current TPS Data

USCIS maintains a TPS page at uscis.gov/tps listing all currently designated countries, their effective dates, registration periods, and re-registration deadlines. Each country gets its own detail page with the Federal Register notice, fee information (currently $50 for Form I-821, $410 for I-765 if you apply for work authorization, and $85 for biometrics as of early 2026 — confirm current fees before filing), and instructions.

The State Department doesn't adjudicate TPS — that's a domestic immigration benefit — but DOS travel advisories and country condition reports inform designation and extension decisions. If you're monitoring whether your country's TPS will be extended, both USCIS announcements and State Department reports on security and humanitarian conditions are relevant.

DHS also publishes an annual TPS report to Congress listing beneficiaries by country and summarizing designation activity. It's not updated in real time, but it's the most comprehensive public dataset on the program.

The Statutory Framework TPS Operates Under

TPS is authorized by Section 244 of the Immigration and Nationality Act, codified at 8 U.S.C. § 1254a. The statute sets the designation criteria (armed conflict, environmental disaster, epidemic, extraordinary temporary conditions), the eligibility requirements for applicants (nationality, physical presence, continuous residence, no criminal bars), and the benefits granted (protection from removal, work authorization, advance parole eligibility).

Regulations implementing the statute appear at 8 CFR § 244. These spell out how continuous residence and continuous physical presence are defined, what evidence satisfies each requirement, how breaks in presence are assessed, and which criminal convictions are disqualifying.

Because TPS is statutory, it's more durable than programs created by executive action alone. DACA, for instance, is a deferred-action policy, not a statute, which is why it has faced legal challenges that TPS has not. But TPS still depends on designation decisions by the Secretary, so it's vulnerable to policy shifts at that level — not in how individual cases are adjudicated, but in whether the program remains available for a given country at all.

Comparison: TPS vs. Asylum Approval Rates

Asylum approval rates vary widely by nationality, court, and administration, often ranging from under 20% to over 80% depending on the country and the adjudicator. Those percentages matter because asylum is a discretionary determination — two applicants with similar fact patterns can get different outcomes.

TPS doesn't work that way. The variance is in who gets designated and when, not in how cases from the same country are adjudicated once designation exists. That's why you don't see published approval rates: the filtering happens at designation, and after that, adjudication is rules-based.

Tracking Your Own TPS Case

Once you file Form I-821, USCIS issues a receipt notice with a case number. You can track the case status online at uscis.gov/casestatus or by calling the USCIS Contact Center. Processing times for TPS applications vary by service center and caseload, so the posted processing time for Form I-821 at your service center is the current benchmark — not an average pulled from past years.

If you filed for an EAD with your TPS application (Form I-765), that processes separately, sometimes on a different timeline. Your work authorization can be approved even if the I-821 is still pending, as long as USCIS has accepted your I-821 filing.

Requests for Evidence (RFEs) in TPS cases usually ask for one of three things: additional proof of identity and nationality, better documentation of continuous residence or physical presence, or clarification of a criminal record. Responding fully and on time is critical — a missed RFE deadline results in denial of the application.

What This Means for Your TPS Strategy

If you're eligible for TPS and your country is designated, file during the registration window with complete documentation. The absence of published approval-rate statistics isn't a red flag — it's how the program is designed. Your outcome depends on whether you meet the criteria and file correctly, not on competitive odds.

If you're uncertain whether a conviction disqualifies you, whether your travel broke continuous residence, or whether you qualify for late filing, those are case-specific questions that don't resolve by looking at approval percentages. Legal advice means reviewing your specific facts against the eligibility rules, not estimating from aggregate data that doesn't exist.

For applicants currently holding TPS, the action item is tracking re-registration deadlines and monitoring whether your country's designation will be extended. USCIS typically announces extensions or terminations several months before the expiration date, but not always with long lead time — check the USCIS TPS page monthly if your status is approaching expiration.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information about TPS designation data and eligibility criteria under current law. It is not legal advice and does not create an attorney-client relationship. TPS outcomes depend on individual facts, case-specific documentation, and timely compliance with USCIS filing requirements. Consult a licensed immigration attorney to assess your situation before applying or responding to a denial.

Need Personalized Immigration Guidance? The Law Offices of Peter D. Chu has been helping individuals and families navigate TPS applications, re-registrations, and status issues since 1981. Our San Diego office offers consultations to assess your eligibility and prepare complete, accurate filings. Contact us at 858-268-8823 or visit www.peterchu.com to schedule your consultation.

Schedule a consultation with the Law Offices of Peter D. Chu — 4615 Convoy St, San Diego, CA 92111 · 858-268-8823 · Mon–Fri, 8:30 AM–5:30 PM. Consultation fee: $250.